Egypt and the Philippines: Bridging 25 Years. Many are wondering what lessons the 1986 People Power Revolution in the Philippines, which ousted Ferdinand Marcos after 14 years of strongman rule (which followed two terms as elected president), might hold for the current “fourth wave” of democratization sweeping through North Africa and the Middle East. Sometimes, having lived in the Philippines through these years, with all of the twists and turns, I am reminded of Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai’s response when asked to assess the French Revolution: “It is too early to say.” Last month, President Noynoy Aquino led the 25th anniversary of the 1986 People Power at the iconic People Power Monument, above.
In early 2001, after People Power 2 had ousted President Joseph Estrada from office and Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo became president, The Asia Foundation sponsored a visit by several Filipinos to cities in the United States to explain the perspectives of the new administration. First, we can look at the role of the military. Mubarak's 5 Fatal Mistakes - Emad Shahin - International. Egypt's dictatorial president was slow to respond to protests -- and then too stubborn to save himself Few of the organizers of Egypt's demonstrations ever dreamed that their call for a day of protest on January 25 would lead to the resignation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. One of the organizers had earlier confided to me that he expected the call to attract only a few hundred people.
He said he planned to spend the day playing Pictionary with his protesting friends. Only 18 days later, Mubarak resigned under pressure from hundreds of thousands of protesters and a military leadership that refused to continue supporting him. But the uprising would not have been so successful without the help of Mubarak himself. The president, in reacting to the protest movement, made five crucial mistakes that contributed to his own downfall. 1) Snail-Pace Response Mubarak did not want to repeat Ben Ali's "mistake" -- cutting and running. 2) Violence Against Civilians 3) Digital Iron Curtain. Indonesia: An Example for Egypt, or a Democracy in Retreat? As the world watched in wonder the phenomenal events in Egypt over the past weeks, a few solitary voices were already urging analysts and policymakers to look not toward Iran, but rather toward Indonesia for historical precedent that might help us make sense of what’s happening, and importantly, what might be to come.
The Carnegie Endowment’s Thomas Carothers, in The New Republic, reminded readers that in Indonesia, in 1998, a dictator of 32 years, firmly backed by the U.S., toppled in the face of a student-led popular movement – amid similar fears that extremist forces would fill the power void. Above, peaceful protests in downtown Jakarta. As reformists in Egypt start to chart their course through a democratic reform process, experts are increasingly viewing Indonesia as a "Model for Egypt's Transition. " Photo: Jonathan McIntosh. These calls have been received warmly by Indonesian leaders, who are actively seeking to establish a greater role for Indonesia on the international stage. Eunomia » The Gap Between Reality and Perception. At this point, we simply don’t know what will happen. We do know what has happened. Mubarak is out of office, the military regime remains intact and it is stronger than ever.
This is not surprising, given what STRATFOR has said about recent events in Egypt, but the reality of what has happened in the last 72 hours and the interpretation that much of the world has placed on it are startlingly different [bold mine-DL]. Power rests with the regime, not with the crowds. In our view, the crowds never had nearly as much power as many have claimed.Certainly, there was a large crowd concentrated in a square in Cairo, and there were demonstrations in other cities.
But the crowd was limited. Friedman’s assessment makes sense, and it is in line with part of what I have been trying to say for at least two weeks. But then, it is not clear that the demonstrators in the square represent the wishes of 80 million Egyptians. There is a critical distinction between the regime and Hosni Mubarak.
Egypt: TV skewing our perceptions. James M. Lindsay: The Water's Edge » Blog Archive » Friday File: Mubarak Is Gone, Now Comes the Hard Part. A family of Egyptian pro-democracy supporters ride on a motorcycle carrying an Egyptian flag after Friday prayers near Tahrir Square in Cairo. (Amr Dalsh/courtesy Reuters) Above the Fold. The TV cameras have left Tahrir Square to follow protests and government crackdowns in Bahrain, Libya, and elsewhere in the Middle East. But Egypt’s story is far from over. Egyptians now must construct a credible and effective successor government.
That is a tall task, especially because credibility and effectiveness may be conflicting objectives. Credibility argues for including diverse political interests in the new government. CFR Event of the Week. Read of the Week. Blog Post of the Week. Poll Question of the Week. Chart of the Week. Source: Gallup. Too Good Not to Note. Perils of Prediction. Quote to Ponder. A Reason to Smile. CFR seeks to foster civil and informed discussion of foreign policy issues. Indonesia: An Example for Egypt, or Democracy in Retreat?
By Robin Bush, Asia Foundation Representative in Indonesia. This post was originally published here on the Asia Foundation’s blog, In Asia. As the world watched in wonder the phenomenal events in Egypt over the past weeks, a few solitary voices were already urging analysts and policymakers to look not toward Iran, but rather toward Indonesia for historical precedent that might help us make sense of what’s happening, and importantly, what might be to come. The Carnegie Endowment’s Thomas Carothers, in The New Republic, reminded readers that in Indonesia, in 1998, a dictator of 32 years, firmly backed by the U.S., toppled in the face of a student-led popular movement – amid similar fears that extremist forces would fill the power void. These calls have been received warmly by Indonesian leaders, who are actively seeking to establish a greater role for Indonesia on the international stage.
Photo by Isabel Esterman, used under a Creative Commons license. Indonesia: An Example for Egypt, or a Democracy in Retreat? La révolutionnite aiguë et les hommes malades du Moyen Orient. Cette drôle de maladie, pour laquelle s’énamourent les Français et de nombreux observateurs étrangers, cette drôle de maladie disais-je a sévi en Tunisie et plus récemment en Égypte où l’on estime que les effets ont été plus modérés. Honni, Moubarak, a tiré sa révérence alors qu’il avait cru pouvoir tenir bon. Cette allergie aux autocrates qui se sont élevés en gravissant les échelons de l’armée s’est (« enfin ! » s’écrieront les plus malades) manifestée au début de l’année 2011. On remarquera une certaine inflammation pour ne pas parler d’immolation, bien que ce soit le terme correct décrivant certains individus désespérés, en guise de symptôme avant coureur de la ravageuse maladie.
La pilule ne passait donc plus ; ce petit comprimé sécuritaire ne savait plus contenir cette envie irrépressible de se passer du très peu poilant État où tout a l’air d’avoir la peau lissée. Et pourtant ! ÉGYPTE • Moubarak aux ordres de l'armée. Pour comprendre où va l’Egypte et la forme que pourrait y prendre la démocratie, il nous faut replacer la mobilisation populaire dans son contexte militaire, économique et social. Quelles sont les forces à l’œuvre derrière la dégringolade de Moubarak ? Et comment ce gouvernement de transition centré sur l’armée s’accommodera-t-il du mouvement de protestation qui rassemble des millions de personnes ? Nombreux sont les commentateurs internationaux, mais aussi les analystes politiques et universitaires, qui peinent à comprendre la complexité des forces qui sont à l’origine de ces événements historiques.
Trois modèles binaires prévalent en ce moment, chacun comportant son propre passif : 1. Le peuple contre la dictature : ce thème est synonyme de naïveté et de confusion libérale quant au rôle actif de l’armée et des élites du soulèvement. 2. Dans les années 1980, elle avait été confrontée au développement de “gangs”, surnommés les baltagiya [voyous]en arabe égyptien. Six observations about Egypt's unrest. 1. It is too early to tell whether this week's protest in Egypt will lead to the overthrow of Mubarak's regime. The size and spread (ie. not just Cairo but other major cities) of the demonstrations is significant, although not unprecedented in Egypt.
The demonstrations have gone on for two days now, but they will have to go on for a lot longer to seriously challenge the regime. Is there a Tunisia effect here? Absolutely. A regime not known for its subtlety or adroitness has to make a very fine judgement about how to respond to the protests: too soft and it won't move the protesters; too hard and it risks the protest snowballing and opening fissures within the regime. 2. 3.
This is not to say that what we are witnessing in Egypt can be attributed to social media alone: people have to be angry enough to protest, and they have to believe that they have a chance of success (see Tunisia point above). 4. 5. 6. What, with tear gas? Photo by Flickr user Al Jazeera English. Five more observations about Egypt. Mubarak speaks, no-one listens. President Mubarak's much anticipated address to the nation on Thursday evening (Egypt time) did even less than people were expecting. He did not resign, he did not lift the emergency law or make major constitutional changes that would make September's presidential election genuinely free and fair (he only promised a process by which this might be undertaken). It was not even clear how much power he was transferring to his Vice-President, Omar Suleiman.
There are three explanations for this characteristic, but still remarkable, display of stubbornness, and in fact elements of all three combined may explain what is occurring: The President and those in the regime still loyal to him, including Vice-President Suleiman, are truly deluded. It is amazing to think that this group really might believe that the President's 'concessions' would get people off the streets.
So what next? This is a major miscalculation, not just by Mubarak but by the regime. We are in a really dangerous phase. Le pouvoir égyptien s'obstine, la révolte aussi - Monde - la-Croix.com. Manifestants place Tahrir, mercredi 9 février (photo Morenatti/AP). Alors que le premier ministre égyptien discute Constitution avec le « comité des sages » créé au lendemain des grandes manifestations en Égypte, la mobilisation ne faiblit pas au Caire et dans tout le pays. Après avoir, mardi 8 février, atteint un niveau jamais vu depuis le début des événements, elle s'est poursuivie mercredi notamment devant les sièges du parlement et du gouvernement au Caire, non loin de la place Tahrir, devenue le symbole de la contestation populaire. « Il n'y a pas de négociations, c'est un leurre.
La révolution appartient au peuple égyptien, déclarait l'écrivain égyptien Alaa El Aswany, proche de la mouvance conduite par l'ancien diplomate égyptien Mohamed El Baradei. L'Égypte dispose de personnes compétentes et intègres capables d'assurer une transition vers la démocratie et le changement de la Constitution. » De plus en plus d'Égyptiens rejoignent la contestation. Fareed Zakaria - Egypt's real parallel to Iran's revolution. A specter is haunting the West. In 1979, the United States watched a street revolution in the Middle East and saw its stalwart ally, Iranian Shah Reza Pahlavi, ousted, only to be replaced by a theocratic Islamic Republic. Now, watching another street revolution in another Middle Eastern country, many people seem spooked by this memory.
Fears of an Islamic takeover are not limited to Glenn Beck, with his predictions that the fall of Hosni Mubarak will lead to the rise of an Islamic caliphate bent on global domination. (Beck's policy recommendation to Americans was even more out there: "store food. ") Serious conservative politicians such as Mitt Romney and John McCain describe Egypt's Islamic opposition in terms not so dissimilar from Beck's. On the left, The Post's Richard Cohen writes, "The dream of a democratic Egypt is sure to produce a nightmare. " All these things may indeed come to pass, but there is little evidence so far to support the scare scenarios. Comments@fareedzakaria.com. RL33003 : Egypt. Crisis Group Statement on the Situation in Egypt. Cairo/Washington DC/Brussels | 3 Feb 2011 The past several days have brought both hope and fear to Egypt.
As Wednesday’s and Thursday’s tragic and wholly unacceptable events illustrate, risks of worse bloodletting continue to mount. The International Crisis Group calls on Egyptian authorities and members of the opposition to take urgent action to stop civil strife and resolve the political crisis. There is no greater priority than ending the violence and preventing a slide into greater chaos. In recent days much of the focus has been on President Mubarak’s immediate resignation.