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Projecting the second round of the French presidential election. What would vote transfers in the second round of the presidential election look like?

Projecting the second round of the French presidential election

In an earlier post, I showed that Jean-Marie Le Pen got very few votes from other parties in the second round of the 2002 election, when he made it to the second round. Voters of all other candidates massively rallied behind Chirac against Le Pen. Will things be different this time around? The CEVIPOF at Sciences Po Paris and IPSOS have released a poll yesterday (n= 11 601) which asks people who they would vote for in the first and the second round, presenting different scenarios. The report shows the proportion of Fillon voters who would vote for Macron if Fillon doesn’t make it to the second round, the proportion who would vote for Le Pen, and so forth. Comment reconnaître un Français à l'étranger ? Paris cut its smog by nearly half on the city’s first “car-free” day — Quartz.

“I was urged to stop paying my bills to invest in more inventory.

Paris cut its smog by nearly half on the city’s first “car-free” day — Quartz

I was urged to get rid of television. I was urged to pawn my vehicle. I just had to get on anxiety meds over all of it because I’ve started having panic attacks.” In June 2016, Sophie (name changed) quit her job in the suburbs of Fort Worth, Texas to sell for LuLaRoe, a rapidly growing clothing company that offers self-employment opportunities to American women in the form of hawking hyper-hued apparel. Parisians carry on shopping as mass graves are exhumed below their feet.

To the shoppers scrutinising the racks of newly arrived spring lingerie on the ground floor of the Monoprix store on the busy Boulevard Sebastopol, there was little to suggest anything unusual.

Parisians carry on shopping as mass graves are exhumed below their feet

As they queued for baguettes, croissants and loaves at the boulangerie counter – also on the ground floor – most were blissfully unaware that a few metres below them archaeologists were brushing away centuries of sand and dirt to reveal hundreds of skeletons in a series of mass graves. “It’s rather a bizarre thought,” Pierre, a retired civil servant, told the Guardian as he clutched his bread stick on Monday. France faces ‘litmus test’ for freedom of expression as dozens arrested in wake of attacks. A string of at least 69 arrests in France this week on the vague charge of “defending terrorism” (“l’apologie du terrorisme”) risks violating freedom of expression, Amnesty International said.

France faces ‘litmus test’ for freedom of expression as dozens arrested in wake of attacks

All the arrests appear to be on the basis of statements made in the aftermath of the deadly attacks against the magazine Charlie Hebdo, a kosher supermarket and security forces in Paris on 7 and 9 January. “In a week in which world leaders and millions around the world have spoken out in defence of freedom of expression, the French authorities must be careful not to violate this right themselves,” said John Dalhuisen, Europe and Central Asia Programme Director at Amnesty International. Paris anti-terror rally: all religions, ages and nations in massive show of unity. It was the day Paris united.

Paris anti-terror rally: all religions, ages and nations in massive show of unity

And with dozens of world leaders joining the millions of people marching to commemorate and celebrate the victims of last week’s terror attacks, it was also the day the world united behind the city. “Today, Paris is the capital of the world. The entire country will rise up,” the French president, François Hollande, said. It was the first time since the liberation of Paris in August 1944 that so many people – the interior ministry said there were too many to count but most estimates put it at somewhere between 1.5 million and 2 million – took to the streets of the city.

An estimated 3.7 million took to the streets across the whole country. This was a nationwide outpouring of grief, solidarity and defiance. “On est tous Charlie” (We are all Charlie), they chanted, waving French flags, singing La Marseillaise, brandishing pens, pencils, placards and banners in French, English and Arabic. Je Suis Nico. c63d9640-868b-4334-a4f0-d4c4d7800793-bestSizeAvailable.jpeg (JPEG Image, 160 × 214 pixels) Israeli newspaper edits out Angela Merkel from front page on Paris march.

A small Jewish ultra-Orthodox newspaper in Israel has found itself in the spotlight after digitally removing Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel from a photo of this week’s Paris march.

Israeli newspaper edits out Angela Merkel from front page on Paris march

World leaders had linked arms to march in Paris against terrorism after Islamic extremists killed 17 people. At the march, Merkel stood in the front row between the French president, François Hollande, and Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas. But readers of the Hamevaser newspaper’s Monday edition didn’t know, as she had been digitally removed, leaving Abbas standing next to Hollande. Israeli media joked it was meant to bring Abbas closer to Israeli premier Binyamin Netanyahu, who was standing nearby. Within the insular ultra-Orthodox community, pictures of women are rarely shown, due to modesty concerns. The picture in Hamevaser also cut out other women, like the Paris mayor, Anne Hidalgo, though the newspaper clumsily left her dark glove on the sleeve of a marcher. Charlie Hebdo: Turkey will block web pages featuring front cover. A Turkish court has ruled to block some web pages featuring the cover of the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo.

Charlie Hebdo: Turkey will block web pages featuring front cover

The Diyarbakir 2nd Criminal Court of Peace ordered the country’s telecommunications authority to ban access to some online news portals showing Charlie Hebdo’s latest front cover, which depicts an image of the prophet Muhammad. The semi-official Anadolu news agency said the court ordered the ban on Wednesday morning. Charlie Hebdo : « C’est dur d’être aimé par des cons » ‘Je suis Charlie’? No, You’re Not, or Else You Might Be Dead.

One of the spontaneous social-media reactions to the Charlie Hebdo massacre today was the Twitter hashtag #JeSuisCharlie("I am Charlie").

‘Je suis Charlie’? No, You’re Not, or Else You Might Be Dead

It's an admirable sentiment, resonant with the classic post-9/11 Le Monde cover "Nous sommes tous Americains. " It's also totally inaccurate. Hunt for Charlie Hebdo killers switches to rural France. As day broke in France on Friday, tens of thousands of French police and soldiers resumed their hunt for two Parisian brothers suspected of the massacre at the Charlie Hebdo magazine.

Hunt for Charlie Hebdo killers switches to rural France

The focus of the pursuit had already shifted from the streets of the capital to the woods and marshes of rural Picardy the previous day. With helicopters buzzing overhead, black-uniformed members of the police special counter-terrorist unit, Raid, rolled along the country roads in armoured cars, combing the wooded hills of the area and going on foot from house to house in a cluster of villages east of the town of Villers-Cotterêts, 70 miles north-east of the capital.

Residents in the villages of Longpont and Corcy were told to stay at home while the hunt was under way. Despite the intense and focused manhunt, there was no certainty that the two wanted men, the sons of Algerian immigrants, had not slipped through the net. Police said on Thursday night they had made two arrests in connection with the killing.

John Lewis boss: ‘France is sclerotic, hopeless and downbeat … it’s finished’ John Lewis’s managing director has described France as “sclerotic, hopeless and downbeat” and advised British entrepreneurs doing business in the country to pull out.

John Lewis boss: ‘France is sclerotic, hopeless and downbeat … it’s finished’

Andy Street said France was “finished”, adding: “I have never been to a country more ill at ease … nothing works and nobody cares about it.” The 'flaws' of French democracy. 11 June 2014Last updated at 19:05 ET Is France a democracy? Most people would assume there is a straightforward answer - "Yes". After all, France has free and fair elections. Amélie film director snubs Broadway adaptation. The director of Amélie has poured scorn on a forthcoming musical adaptation of his film, admitting that he only sold the rights to support a charity. Paris stages 'festival of errors' to teach French schoolchildren how to think. Late in the 19th century, while investigating chicken cholera, Louis Pasteur infected some birds with bacteria that he confidently believed would kill them. De haut en bas. Défilé militaire : mais pourquoi tant de rage contre Eva Joly ?

Baudry sur le souhait d’Eva Joly de supprimer le défilé du 14 Juillet. Eva Joly a exprimé un « rêve » de bon sens : la disparition du défilé militaire du 14 Juillet. Comment ne pas souhaiter que le symbole de notre République cesse de prendre la forme de ces cohortes de véhicules blindés ? Les défilés militaires, ce sont des coutumes propres aux régimes autoritaires, voire totalitaires (Russie, Chine, Corée du Nord...). Ou alors de pays en conflit avec leurs voisins. Très rares sont les démocraties en paix qui s’y adonnent. Il n’y a rien de surprenant à ce que la candidate des écologistes propose de supprimer le défilé militaire du 14 Juillet. Pourquoi, dès lors, une telle passion contre les propos de Joly ? DSK Wife Anne Sinclair and the Over-Sexualized French Culture. Les caricatures publiées dans "Charia hebdo" Le physicien Adlène Hicheur condamné à 5 ans de prison pour terrorisme - Fondamental.

Le physicien Adlène Hicheur, qui travaillait au Cern près de Genève, a été condamné vendredi 4 mai à 5 ans de prison, dont un avec sursis, par le tribunal correctionnel de Paris qui le reconnait coupable d’avoir préparé un attentat terroriste en France via des conversations sur internet avec un responsable supposé d’Aqmi, l’organisation djihadiste basée en Algérie. En détention provisoire depuis son arrestation en octobre 2009 à son domicile familial à Vienne (Isère), le physicien français âgé de 35 ans n’a pas nié ces échanges de mail mais dénonce une enquête «malhonnête» et des «inexactitudes».

Il s’estime jugé sur des opinions et non sur des actes. News Desk: D.S.K. in Jail: The View from Paris. This was the only story on French cable TV news this morning: Dominique Strauss-Kahn, chief of the International Monetary Fund, was reported to be “entirely nude” when a “chambermaid” entered his “three thousand dollar a night suite” at the Times Square Sofitel, at which point he “precipitated” himself on her, then “precipitated” her onto the bed, forcing her to perform “une fellation,” until she fought free of him, and “escaped,” calling the police, while he threw on some clothes and, leaving behind his cell phone and other “personal effects,” he “fled” to J.F.K.

International Airport, where he was ensconced on an Air France jet minutes before takeoff for Paris when detectives stopped the flight, and removed him to a “commissariat in Harlem,” where he was held on suspicion of attempted rape and involuntary imprisonment in connection with a sexual assault. (He was expected to enter a not-guilty plea in court by evening.) Unesco adds French cuisine to heritage list.

The committee agreed that French cuisine is part of a custom that celebrates the most important moments in the lives of individuals and groups. "The French like to meet, drink well, eat well and enjoy themselves," said French ambassador to Unesco Catherine Colonna. "It's part of a tradition of living well. " The committee discussed the French case at length, fearing it could be abused for commercial ends. Il est désormais interdit de boycotter. On a les victoires qu’on peut : Michèle Alliot-Marie a, il y a quelques mois, par une simple circulaire, commis un attentat juridique d’une rare violence contre l’un des moyens les plus anciens et les plus efficaces de la contestation des Etats par les sociétés civiles, à savoir le boycott.

Le 12 février, la Chancellerie a eu cette idée extraordinaire selon laquelle tout appel au boycott des produits d’un pays n’était qu’une «provocation publique à la discrimination envers une nation», punie d’un an d’emprisonnement et de 45 000 euros d’amende. Le ministère demande aux procureurs de la République d’assurer une répression «ferme et cohérente» de ces agissements.

La notion de discrimination ne peut s’entendre que d’une différence de traitement n’obéissant à aucun but légitime. L’instrumentalisation d’un texte qui visait à combattre le racisme, le nationalisme et le sexisme est inadmissible, surtout lorsqu’elle vise à faire taire l’engagement citoyen. Video: French police accused of rough tactics in immigrant eviction. La circulaire visant les Roms est "très probablement illégale" Why French Parents Are Superior by Pamela Druckerman. Ils l'appelleront Victoire ? Ils l'appelleront Victoire ? C'est désormais officiel ou quasiment : Carla Bruni-Sarkozy attend un enfant, qui devrait naître à l'automne. "C'est l'avenir de la France" a déclaré Bernadette Chirac, par qui l'information est notamment arrivée. Il y a surtout des chances pour que ce cet "heureux événement" joue en faveur de l'avenir proche de son père, Nicolas Sarkozy, qui pourrait briguer un nouveau mandat présidentiel en 2012.